Jeff Rosenberg

And that was why most economists are under clubbing growth in 2025.

It may be, again, the story in 2026.

It's a little bit of the K-shaped economy story as well, because it's only a small portion that are benefiting.

But that small portion overwhelmingly is influencing that consumption.

So a big part of that, Tom, is in the term premium, right?

The Fed and what we saw in 2025 was that the short end of the yield curve, shorter maturities were very responsive to policy rates.

It came up in the press conference today in the question about long-term interest rates.

And Powell basically admitted that longer-term interest rates are going to be a function.

He focused on the fiscal policy uncertainty.

But there's more than that.

There's real interest rates.

The whole other picture to AI is an incredible shift.

In investment demand, that raises real interest rates.

And the inflation piece to your question, Tom, is about inflation risk premia.

And as you move further out in time, there's more time for that uncertainty for all those reasons to affect inflation.

And the bond market impact is a steeper yield curve reflective in nominal space of greater inflation risk premia.

Yeah, again, it kind of came up in the context of the recent volatility in JGBs.

You know, is there a nonlinear event for the U.S.

bond market?

You know, it's a different market.