Jeff Snyder

So the dollar was going up as we got extreme monetary conditions.

Now, after things calmed down after April into the summertime, the dollar backed off.

It wasn't crashing.

It wasn't signaling a new paradigm shift that everybody's moving away from the dollar.

This narrative of sell America came up.

That wasn't happening.

The dollar was coming back down off of a deflationary extreme.

And then it settled down.

And against most currencies, not the euro, it has actually been moving higher again.

Couple of notable exceptions, the Euro as well as the Chinese Yuan.

But for most major currencies, the dollar is actually going higher and they're going lower, which again is not a good sign.

It means financing conditions are tightening all over again.

So there is a lot of misconceptions about what the dollar is actually signaling.

As far as its impact on the US economy,

There's this old economics textbook narrative about beggar thy neighbor.

You're cheap in your currency, it makes your exports cheaper to sell overseas, right?

That doesn't actually happen.

When we see the dollar go up, it usually means that demand is weak overseas to begin with.

So even if it's cheaper to sell stuff overseas, when the dollar goes down, it's not actually a good thing anyway.

It means that global economic circumstances in very broad terms are less than ideal and getting worse.