Jennifer Parker

Yeah, look, I think we also shouldn't underestimate the huge internal pressure on Iran.

Iran is also suffering militarily and economically.

I think the difference there, of course, is not being a legitimate regime, they don't have to worry about midterms and votes.

What do I think we'll see next?

Look, I think certainly President Trump does want this interim deal.

And bear in mind, this peace deal that's been talked about for the last month is not a longstanding peace deal.

It sounds like an interim memorandum of understanding to agree to, I guess, delay the conversations on the heart of discussions around nuclear weapons, around uranium enrichment in Iran and their ballistic missile program.

Look, I think we'll see the US pushing for that deal.

But if they get the sense that that is not achievable, I think you may well see the US potentially return to high-end conflict.

Because what they can't afford is this stalemate that we've now seen effectively since the 8th of April.

continue because that stalemate, you know, the original terms for the ceasefire were that Iran would cease attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and we'd start to see oil and other critical goods start to flow through that strait.

Over two months now since that ceasefire began, that has by and large not happened.

So as much as I think the US do not want to return to this high intensity conflict, there is only so long domestically and internationally that President Trump can withstand this stalemate situation as well.

Well, I think that that could be the case.

If we're assuming that Iran's strikes indicate that the interim peace deal is not close to being signed, then he would potentially have to take action.

What risks does that come with?

A couple, or a lot actually.

Domestically, we know that unlike other US interventions in the Middle East, the Iran war was not popular from the outset.

So he

has very limited support domestically, including very limited support within his own party and within the Republicans within the US Congress.