Jennifer Parker

I think we are seeing a changing in some of the language used by some of the leaders in those countries.

I think if the UAE, which has a very capable air force, does start striking Iran, then the length of this conflict is going to be prolonged and it does enter a new dangerous era.

At this stage, I think the UAE are probably unlikely to do that, despite the fact that we're seeing their language change, because really they don't want this conflict to be prolonged.

And so I think it is unlikely at this stage.

Look, eventually that strait will open or ships will be encouraged to go through.

It's a matter of time.

But that isn't necessarily comforting because that time could be weeks, it could be months.

The reason it will eventually open is there is an economic imperative for Iran, for the Gulf states, and even an economic imperative for China.

China is heavily dependent on the importation of certain oil.

A significant amount of that comes from Iran.

And so I think that that's reasonable to ask China to lean on Iran.

Will that be effective?

These peace talks and the status of ceasefire, none of the...

stuff that's been put in the public domain has really been clear in terms of what are the conditions of the ceasefire, what are the struggling points in the peace talks.

In fact, to be honest, it's not even really clear who's in charge in Iran.

Well,

Well, the U.S.

has announced that they intend to establish what's called a maritime freedom construct at the end of this conflict.

Of course, we're not necessarily clear when the end will be.

That is about a semi-permanent force with a diplomatic arm that is meant to be ensuring freedom of navigation through the Strait and applying both diplomatic and military pressure to Iran if they continue to try and attack shipping post the end of this conflict.