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Jeremy Maletz

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
274 total appearances

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Odd Lots
Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

where far less volume is traded.

Odd Lots
Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

And that's because what the prediction markets really provide is information.

Odd Lots
Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

It's a price discovery mechanism.

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Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

So you have this phenomenal community of superforecasters that exist on a prediction market.

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Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

And it doesn't take as much volume as you would think to get to a fair price.

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Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

And that allows us to say, hey, okay, we've got a reasonably fair price on this prediction market.

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Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

Maybe it's only traded $100,000, but we know that there's been a lot of smart people that have looked at this.

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Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

We can do our own internal vetting at the same time also.

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Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

And now we're comfortable going out there and saying,

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Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

we're confident enough in this price because of the price discovery mechanism that we'll make tens of millions of dollars of risk to a company that needs to hedge its risk of what, you know, some regulation or Strait of Hormuz or whatever it is that's happening in the world.

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Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

So, you know, someone needs to go out and do that.

Odd Lots
Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

And I think we're kind of uniquely positioned because of our culture of saying, yes, we are willing to take that risk.

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Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

And yes, we want prediction markets to grow.

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Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

So the first piece is the exact thing that you just brought up, awareness.

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Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

They look at the markets and they might say, well, I don't see how we could actually hedge some of these things because there's not enough volume and liquidity.

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Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

To which our response is, we will be the liquidity.

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Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

Then the other question is, okay, well, we sort of need our compliance to get comfortable with this.

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Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

This stuff is so new.

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Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

What's the legal landscape?

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Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

How do we get this stuff even over our firewall?