Jim Power

And it makes the deficit worse than it really is.

However, from a general government perspective, it's neutral.

It has no effect.

So as a consequence of that, the general government surplus, well, that and other things, the general government surplus is very strong.

So where I'm going with this, if I've not lost you all already, is the fact that-

Yeah, it's the fact that when people see the headlines about this massive surplus on the general government balance, they immediately say, you know, what's the government complaining about?

You know, there's plenty of money to address all of these problems.

And indeed, that's a narrative I heard being thrown out there during the fuel protests about a month ago at this stage.

And the reality is, and as a consequence of that, of course, going into the budget now, there's a lot of,

organizations and lobby groups that set out their feeling that yeah this is going to be a great budget we're going to get a load out of it why not there are massive surpluses being run but i would throw a lot of cold water on that suggestion because from the government's perspective i think the exchequer balance is more important because that tells us the taxation that's being collected

And at the moment, that taxation picture is strong.

Even if you strip out the so-called Apple taxes impact over the last couple of years, income tax is still growing strongly, reflecting the strong labor market VAT, which is...

Basically, a consumer spending tax in the main, it's growing quite strongly.

And corporation tax, of course, is still growing very strongly.

So the tax side of the equation is fine.

But on the other side of the coin, government spending is growing in excess of 9% year on year at the moment.

And of course, the government's concern is that if you well, I think I'm just putting myself in the shoes of government or particularly Jack Chambers.

I'm not sure about Simon Harris, but I'd say Jack Chambers is thinking at the moment, the Minister for Public Expansion Reform.

If you look at the tax take, it is very exposed to cyclical developments.

You know, if the Iranian crisis gets deeper and becomes more prolonged, that's ultimately possible.