Joe Biden

Yeah, I mean, I think at a minimum, at a minimum, there is this view that for a long time, you know, the quote rules, they always say businesses want certainty, that businesses hate uncertainty. These are cliches, but there's probably always some truth to why these are cliches. At a minimum, we're in a period of a high degree of uncertainty about what the trading relationship between the U.S.

Yeah, I mean, I think at a minimum, at a minimum, there is this view that for a long time, you know, the quote rules, they always say businesses want certainty, that businesses hate uncertainty. These are cliches, but there's probably always some truth to why these are cliches. At a minimum, we're in a period of a high degree of uncertainty about what the trading relationship between the U.S.

and the rest of the world is going to look like. And at a minimum, you would think that, OK, this is not an environment in which businesses are going to be inclined to make new investments, open up new factories, open up new locations, expand headcount, et cetera. I think the general perception is it's worse than that.

and the rest of the world is going to look like. And at a minimum, you would think that, OK, this is not an environment in which businesses are going to be inclined to make new investments, open up new factories, open up new locations, expand headcount, et cetera. I think the general perception is it's worse than that.

So that would be the minimum is that you have this sort of period of uncertainty where there's no new expansion. But, you know, you have the hit to the stock market. You have major new costs coming through. I mean, this is something of an instantaneous supply shock, probably not quite on the order of the COVID supply shock, but a supply shock nonetheless. You have the...

So that would be the minimum is that you have this sort of period of uncertainty where there's no new expansion. But, you know, you have the hit to the stock market. You have major new costs coming through. I mean, this is something of an instantaneous supply shock, probably not quite on the order of the COVID supply shock, but a supply shock nonetheless. You have the...

rise in interest rates that we've seen over the last several days, that's going to affect borrowing costs. It's going to affect the housing market. That's going to affect the car market, other areas of corporate finance. So that probably has a tightening and negative effect on actual activity.

rise in interest rates that we've seen over the last several days, that's going to affect borrowing costs. It's going to affect the housing market. That's going to affect the car market, other areas of corporate finance. So that probably has a tightening and negative effect on actual activity.

So it's really not just, it's not just a market story, even though, you know, everyone's watching the charts on their screen and that's sort of what's getting the immediate attention because we really haven't had like the hard data so-called hit that really shows what's been going on in the economy over the last few weeks.

So it's really not just, it's not just a market story, even though, you know, everyone's watching the charts on their screen and that's sort of what's getting the immediate attention because we really haven't had like the hard data so-called hit that really shows what's been going on in the economy over the last few weeks.

Yeah, I mean, I don't know how anyone could say that ever. I mean, in any condition, right? In any condition, I don't know how anyone could ever say there's no chance at all happening. And when you look at just the degree of tightening that we've gotten in financial markets, and by tightening, I mean, like, if you're issuing equity, that's gotten more expensive because the price has gone down.

Yeah, I mean, I don't know how anyone could say that ever. I mean, in any condition, right? In any condition, I don't know how anyone could ever say there's no chance at all happening. And when you look at just the degree of tightening that we've gotten in financial markets, and by tightening, I mean, like, if you're issuing equity, that's gotten more expensive because the price has gone down.

If you're issuing credit, not only have you seen yields rise, you've seen credit spreads rise.

If you're issuing credit, not only have you seen yields rise, you've seen credit spreads rise.

um and just the higher costs of all kinds of inputs and then the sort of negativity that's in you know out in the you know out in the ether out in the media it's hard for me to believe that there is literally no chance at all of a recession even you know i would say actually there are a lot of people there are some people who think that um a recession has started already right larry fink um

um and just the higher costs of all kinds of inputs and then the sort of negativity that's in you know out in the you know out in the ether out in the media it's hard for me to believe that there is literally no chance at all of a recession even you know i would say actually there are a lot of people there are some people who think that um a recession has started already right larry fink um

The CEO of Blackstone said, I think about a week and a half ago, that the CEOs he talks to think the recession has already begun. Charlie Gasparino, who works for Fox Business, said he talks to CEOs who think that a recession is either imminent or has perhaps already begun.

The CEO of Blackstone said, I think about a week and a half ago, that the CEOs he talks to think the recession has already begun. Charlie Gasparino, who works for Fox Business, said he talks to CEOs who think that a recession is either imminent or has perhaps already begun.

If you look at the betting markets, you know, there's like at least a 50-50% chance, according to people with money on the line, that a recession has begun. So the idea that there's no chance at all of a recession in 2025 strikes me as a little bit implausible.

If you look at the betting markets, you know, there's like at least a 50-50% chance, according to people with money on the line, that a recession has begun. So the idea that there's no chance at all of a recession in 2025 strikes me as a little bit implausible.