Joe Wallace

So, yeah, we'll find out.

I think when the war broke out, there was a degree of complacency in the oil market.

The market thought that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was the boy that cried wolf.

This didn't happen last year, even during the 12 day war.

And likewise, Iran had mostly in the past refrained from attacking regional energy infrastructure.

By the Sunday after the attack, it was clear that both of those assumptions were out of the window.

But even so, it took the market until really Friday to realize the full implications, especially of the closure of the strait, which is that with nowhere for the oil to go, massive producers in the region were going to have to cut production because they don't have enough space to store the oil.

And Kuwait, for example, simply hadn't built much storage space down the years because its oil fields are close to the coastal ports.

And the assumption was this oil would just flow out to the market, and that's clearly no longer the case.

Precisely.

The Iranian messaging has been mixed.

The Iranian delegation to the United Nations said last week the strait is open, but at the same time, ships in...

The region have reported receiving radio messages purportedly from Iranian naval captains saying don't pass through.

The IRTC has warned that ships from Europe and Israel and the US are legitimate targets.

And as of Sunday, at least nine ships had been attacked and one sailor had been killed.

So you can see why most ship owners don't want to go through right now.

Very much so.

And I think the water attacks are pertinent even to oil because it shows that the gloves are off and anything might now be considered fair game.

A huge oil field in Saudi Arabia, the Berry Oil Field, was targeted on Saturday.

Saudi intercepted the drone.