Joe Wiesenthal
speaker
1,572 appearances
15 recordings
2 series
first heard Sep 2025
last heard 26 Jun
Joe Wiesenthal’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 14 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 9.
Appearances
Why is a market maker an important part of the infrastructure for this to work?
So this sort of leads into the next question, and it's maybe the multi-billion dollar question of prediction markets, which is, okay, we know that there is a huge amount of the prediction markets business, which is just sports betting under a slightly different form.
But you mentioned hedging, and this gets to the core question, which is, in theory, there are a lot of instruments on these prediction market platforms that could be useful hedging instruments for corporations, say a market on snowfall in New York City, which might affect an airline or something like that.
Maybe they want to hedge that.
When I look at the platforms currently, I see a price for like snowfall, but I don't see anywhere near the volume level that say would really justify like an airline could, you know, you see $150,000 in volume on whether there'll be between six and eight inches of snow.
That's obviously nowhere near deep enough for a serious economic actor to participate in.
So where are we on that in terms of the promise of actually useful instruments for hedging?
So this is really important.
So if I look at a contract and I see a number there like $150,000, it's possible that there was a trade, an off-platform trade of much bigger size that was not printed on that, but that was more by swap form.
And is that currently happening?
It is possible.
And the more they do it, the more they're going to- If an institution, again, let's go to the airline hedging snowfall, would they have a relationship with you?
Would they go through a prime broker who then has a relationship with you?
What is the actual chain of phone calls or whatever that
Do you see right now, so again, people say, yeah, these are just, it's sports betting, et cetera.
And then maybe every two years or every four years, there's some election activity.
Maybe there's some trades that are sort of like, look like crypto derivatives, et cetera.
When you actually look at today's volume of activity, do you see a meaningful shift towards what polite people who wear suits would say like real things?
Is that happening?
So one of the concerns or one of the things that people talk about with prediction markets is the possibility of insider trading.
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