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John Arnold

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
791 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

That's basis trading.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

I did that for a small part of my career, those price differentials between OnePoint and The Hub in Louisiana.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

But most of my career in trading was trading what we call the fixed price of natural gas.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

And so this is, if you're watching CNBC and on the ticker, it has a gas price.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

So it changed over time.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

I was for a long time the largest market maker in the business, which I did both because I was profitable

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

as well as maybe more importantly, it allowed ability to put on and off positions with lower slippage and with fewer people knowing what my position was.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

And then also gave me insight into who was doing what in the market.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

And so I could start to build the psychology of the market.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

I could see certain traders positioning certain ways and try to reverse engineer what their thinking was, which helped me in trying to figure out how I wanted to be positioned.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

So a healthy financial market exists for a reason.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

And that reason is that there are commercial players, in this case, producers or end users who have exposure to the commodity market.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

that are willing to pay something to have somebody else reduce their risk to the commodity price.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

And they will pay something to the market for that risk management.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

And if that exists, so if you think about

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

A producer of natural gas whose revenue is almost entirely based upon what the price of natural gas is for a given month or even day by day.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

There is this huge boom bus that can happen because commodities are naturally have this boom bus cycle.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

And so businesses, then if you're exposed just to the spot price or today's price.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

Those businesses also go through a boom-bust cycle.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
John Arnold - China, Energy Markets and Fixing America's Systems - [Invest Like the Best, EP.461]

And so many businesses will choose to hedge out or fix some of their forward revenue and reduce their exposure to short-term swings in the market.