John Mearsheimer
speaker
2,303 appearances
7 recordings
5 series
first heard Nov 2023
last heard 28 May
John Mearsheimer’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 5 in all, peaking in May 2026 with 4.
Appearances
I could explain why I think Taiwan is not a serious problem at the moment or for the foreseeable future. The South China Sea is a very dangerous place. We could end up in a war for sure, even if we did not defend Taiwan. So Taiwan, you don't want to overemphasize. I agree with Jeff that we definitely don't want a war. And we certainly don't want a nuclear war.
And he is absolutely correct that there's a risk of a nuclear war if a war breaks out of any sort between China and the United States. Many of us in the audience remember the Cold War, and this was an ever-present danger in the Cold War.
But my argument is that this is inevitable, because in a world where you don't have a higher authority and you care about your survival, you have a deep-seated interest, as any state in the system, to be as powerful as possible. And that means dominating your region of the world.
Well, we definitely view India as an ally. It's part of the Quad, which is this Rube Goldberg-type alliance structure that we put together in East Asia that includes Australia, Japan, the United States, and India. India is smartly maintaining its good relations with Russia. The Indians understand, like Jeff and I do, that the Russians are no great threat.
But from India's point of view, the real threat is China. And there are two places where India cares about China. One is on the India-China border up in the Himalayas, where they've actually had conflicts. And there's a real danger of war breaking out.
The second place, which is maybe even more dangerous, not at the moment, but will be over time, is the Indian Ocean, because the Chinese are imitating the United States. They not only want to be a regional hegemon, they want to develop power projection capability.
So the Chinese are building a blue-water navy that can come out of East Asia, through the Straits of Malacca, through the Indian Ocean to the Persian Gulf. And once you start talking about going through the Indian Ocean, the Indians get spooked. And that's when the Americans and the Indians come together.
Let's let John in. Spicy. I just want to ask Jeff a question on this. My argument is that this is the way the world works.
And it is. And it is. But if I'm describing how the world really works, how do you beat me?
Two points. In my heart, I'm with Jeff. In my head, I'm not with Jeff. I wish he were right, but I don't believe he's right. To answer your question head on, I believe that there is no way out. We are in an iron cage. This is just the way international politics works. And it's because you're in an anarchic system
where you can never be sure that a really powerful state in the system won't come after you and inflict a century of national humiliation on you. So you go to great lengths to avoid that by trying to gain power at the expense of another power. And that leads to all sorts of trouble. Can war be avoided?
I like to distinguish between security competition, which I think is inevitable, and war, which is where security competition evolves into war. I think war can be avoided, and we were thankfully successful in that regard during the Cold War. And hopefully that will be the case in the US-China competition moving forward. Can I guarantee that? No. Does this disturb me greatly? Yes.
But again, this is just the tragic aspect of the world we live in.
And Israelis.
Let me answer your question about escalation potential, the Jordanians coming in. Israel faces three big problems, aside from problems with centrifugal forces inside the society. One is the Palestinian problem, which is both in Gaza and in the West Bank. That's one. Two is Hezbollah, and three is Iran.
I think there is virtually no chance of what you described happening, which is if the Israelis were to go on a rampage in the West Bank, similar to what they've done in Gaza, that the Jordanians would come in or the Egyptians or the Saudis. They simply don't have the military capability. This is a scenario where the Israelis completely dominate.
So in terms of escalation with regard to the Israel-Palestine problem, I don't think there's much potential. Hezbollah is a different issue, but mainly because it's linked with Iran, right? And Iran is the really dangerous flashpoint because, as you know, the Russians are now closely allied with the Iranians. The Chinese are moving in that direction as well.
And if Israel gets involved in a war with Iran, we're going to come in, in all likelihood. Remember, when the Israelis attacked the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1st, on April 14th, The Iranians retaliated against it.
Yeah. But we were involved. We were forewarned, weren't we? Yes, we were forewarned. But the point is that we were involved in the fighting. We were involved with the Israelis, with the French, the British, the Jordanians, and the Saudis. We were all involved in the fighting. So this gets at the escalation problem.
Now, to counter the Iranian escalation scenario, the fact is Iran does not want a war with the United States. And the United States does not want a war with Iran. And it's the Israelis, especially Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been trying to sort of suck us into a war.
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