John Mearsheimer

So we were planning to move in with military force.

The Iranian government cracks down on January 8th,

And when the Iranian government cracks down and it looks like they're having an effect on dampening the protests, we begin to think about moving in with military force because we want to topple that regime.

And when I say we, I mean the United States and the Israelis.

But what happens is that on January 14th, Trump backs off.

And the question is, why does Trump back off?

And there are two reasons that he backs off.

The first is his military commanders tell him that he cannot win a decisive victory if he uses military force.

And the reason is that the government in Tehran has basically quelled the protests.

So the protests are not swelling

to the point where the American military can come in and deliver the final blow, the coup de grace, right?

We're not in a position to do that by January 14th.

So Trump begins to cool his jets.

The second thing that happens is Netanyahu calls him, and Netanyahu tells him he does not want Trump to use military force.

Because as long as the regime is in power, and it looks like it's going to be in power on January 14th, that means the regime will launch ballistic missiles and cruise missiles at Israel.

And Israel cannot defend itself.

This argument is hardly ever heard in the West.

But you have to understand that in the 12-day war last June,

What the Israelis wanted to do after 12 days was end that war because they were incapable of defending themselves.

The Iranians had learned how to get lots of ballistic and cruise missiles through their defenses, and the Israelis were running out of defensive missiles.