John Mearsheimer

And he is absolutely correct that there's a risk of a nuclear war if a war breaks out of any sort between China and the United States. Many of us in the audience remember the Cold War, and this was an ever-present danger in the Cold War.

And he is absolutely correct that there's a risk of a nuclear war if a war breaks out of any sort between China and the United States. Many of us in the audience remember the Cold War, and this was an ever-present danger in the Cold War.

But my argument is that this is inevitable, because in a world where you don't have a higher authority and you care about your survival, you have a deep-seated interest, as any state in the system, to be as powerful as possible. And that means dominating your region of the world.

But my argument is that this is inevitable, because in a world where you don't have a higher authority and you care about your survival, you have a deep-seated interest, as any state in the system, to be as powerful as possible. And that means dominating your region of the world.

Well, we definitely view India as an ally. It's part of the Quad, which is this Rube Goldberg-type alliance structure that we put together in East Asia that includes Australia, Japan, the United States, and India. India is smartly maintaining its good relations with Russia. The Indians understand, like Jeff and I do, that the Russians are no great threat.

Well, we definitely view India as an ally. It's part of the Quad, which is this Rube Goldberg-type alliance structure that we put together in East Asia that includes Australia, Japan, the United States, and India. India is smartly maintaining its good relations with Russia. The Indians understand, like Jeff and I do, that the Russians are no great threat.

But from India's point of view, the real threat is China. And there are two places where India cares about China. One is on the India-China border up in the Himalayas, where they've actually had conflicts. And there's a real danger of war breaking out.

But from India's point of view, the real threat is China. And there are two places where India cares about China. One is on the India-China border up in the Himalayas, where they've actually had conflicts. And there's a real danger of war breaking out.

The second place, which is maybe even more dangerous, not at the moment, but will be over time, is the Indian Ocean, because the Chinese are imitating the United States. They not only want to be a regional hegemon, they want to develop power projection capability.

The second place, which is maybe even more dangerous, not at the moment, but will be over time, is the Indian Ocean, because the Chinese are imitating the United States. They not only want to be a regional hegemon, they want to develop power projection capability.

So the Chinese are building a blue-water navy that can come out of East Asia, through the Straits of Malacca, through the Indian Ocean to the Persian Gulf. And once you start talking about going through the Indian Ocean, the Indians get spooked. And that's when the Americans and the Indians come together.

So the Chinese are building a blue-water navy that can come out of East Asia, through the Straits of Malacca, through the Indian Ocean to the Persian Gulf. And once you start talking about going through the Indian Ocean, the Indians get spooked. And that's when the Americans and the Indians come together.

Let's let John in. Spicy. I just want to ask Jeff a question on this. My argument is that this is the way the world works.

Let's let John in. Spicy. I just want to ask Jeff a question on this. My argument is that this is the way the world works.

And it is. And it is. But if I'm describing how the world really works, how do you beat me?

And it is. And it is. But if I'm describing how the world really works, how do you beat me?

Two points. In my heart, I'm with Jeff. In my head, I'm not with Jeff. I wish he were right, but I don't believe he's right. To answer your question head on, I believe that there is no way out. We are in an iron cage. This is just the way international politics works. And it's because you're in an anarchic system

Two points. In my heart, I'm with Jeff. In my head, I'm not with Jeff. I wish he were right, but I don't believe he's right. To answer your question head on, I believe that there is no way out. We are in an iron cage. This is just the way international politics works. And it's because you're in an anarchic system

where you can never be sure that a really powerful state in the system won't come after you and inflict a century of national humiliation on you. So you go to great lengths to avoid that by trying to gain power at the expense of another power. And that leads to all sorts of trouble. Can war be avoided?

where you can never be sure that a really powerful state in the system won't come after you and inflict a century of national humiliation on you. So you go to great lengths to avoid that by trying to gain power at the expense of another power. And that leads to all sorts of trouble. Can war be avoided?