John Mearsheimer

could be in a remote area.

We would use a small number of nuclear weapons to signal to the Soviets that we were deadly serious about putting an end to their offensive and that we were

throwing both sides out on the slippery slope to oblivion.

In other words, we were manipulating risk.

And the last clear chance to avoid Armageddon rested with them.

And then we would tell them that if you retaliated with a handful of nuclear weapons and you didn't cease your offensive against West Germany, we would...

launch another nuclear attack.

We would explode a handful more of nuclear weapons, all for the purposes of showing you our resolve.

So this is the manipulation of risk strategy.

And a lot of the language I just used in describing it to you is language that Thomas Schelling invented, right?

Now, fast forward to the present.

If Russia were losing in Ukraine, that's the one scenario where I think where Russia would have used nuclear weapons.

And the question is, how would Russia have used nuclear weapons?

Again, we're assuming that the Russians are losing to the Ukrainians.

I believe they would have pursued a manipulation of risk strategy.

They would have used four or five, three or four, who knows, nuclear weapons.

Yes, exactly.

And basically, that would spook everybody.

Just the mushroom cloud.

Yeah.