John Siracusa

And in between, though, there was periods of stability, like there was like a seemingly long period of stability where it's like Windows desktop PCs running in Dell CPUs. And then that same stability period, but with the Internet and then mobile came. And so there's always this kind of periods where you're like, yes, this is just the way computers are.

And in between, though, there was periods of stability, like there was like a seemingly long period of stability where it's like Windows desktop PCs running in Dell CPUs. And then that same stability period, but with the Internet and then mobile came. And so there's always this kind of periods where you're like, yes, this is just the way computers are.

You buy a personal computer, you put things floppy disks on them and you run them and that's all there is. And it seems like that's going to be it. But then the next inflection point comes and there's chaos and there's winners and losers. And then there's another stable period.

You buy a personal computer, you put things floppy disks on them and you run them and that's all there is. And it seems like that's going to be it. But then the next inflection point comes and there's chaos and there's winners and losers. And then there's another stable period.

And so, yeah, I think we were in a pretty long stable period with we were currently in the PCs exists, mobile exists, the Internet exists. And then we're in kind of mostly stable period. And then LLM's came and said, now nobody knows what's up. Everyone's scrambling. Who are going to be the winners? Who are going to be the losers? And yeah, we're in the middle of that right now.

And so, yeah, I think we were in a pretty long stable period with we were currently in the PCs exists, mobile exists, the Internet exists. And then we're in kind of mostly stable period. And then LLM's came and said, now nobody knows what's up. Everyone's scrambling. Who are going to be the winners? Who are going to be the losers? And yeah, we're in the middle of that right now.

Well, there's a question of whether them being behind is an advantage or disadvantage, though. Like the reason their stock price is up, it's like this is further evidence that Apple LLM technology that nobody really has a moat.

Well, there's a question of whether them being behind is an advantage or disadvantage, though. Like the reason their stock price is up, it's like this is further evidence that Apple LLM technology that nobody really has a moat.

That even if you are the best at making these AI things, there's nothing you're doing that someone else can't also do because everything you're doing is essentially based on technology and techniques that everyone understands. You know what I mean? And the reason people think Apple has a moat is because Apple's just making computers that run software. There's no mystery about what they do.

That even if you are the best at making these AI things, there's nothing you're doing that someone else can't also do because everything you're doing is essentially based on technology and techniques that everyone understands. You know what I mean? And the reason people think Apple has a moat is because Apple's just making computers that run software. There's no mystery about what they do.

It's computer chips, it's software, it's hardware. All right, Apple's moat is, yeah, anyone can do this, but we're the only ones who know how to do it with taste, with style, with the right feature set, with, you know, like all the Apple sort of more intangible things. There's nothing technologically speaking interesting

It's computer chips, it's software, it's hardware. All right, Apple's moat is, yeah, anyone can do this, but we're the only ones who know how to do it with taste, with style, with the right feature set, with, you know, like all the Apple sort of more intangible things. There's nothing technologically speaking interesting

even in the Apple Silicon era, really, that it's like, well, nobody else could do this except for Apple. They have a secret sauce. Their secret sauce is how they combine the ingredients. So to stretch the cooking analogy here, right? Everyone knows, everyone's got the recipe, right? It's just a question of, can you put it all together, right? that's, that's Apple's mode.

even in the Apple Silicon era, really, that it's like, well, nobody else could do this except for Apple. They have a secret sauce. Their secret sauce is how they combine the ingredients. So to stretch the cooking analogy here, right? Everyone knows, everyone's got the recipe, right? It's just a question of, can you put it all together, right? that's, that's Apple's mode.

Like that's why Apple has been so successful for so long. It's not like they have a secret technology that nobody knows about. Right. And it's the same thing with the AI companies and opening. I think kind of felt like it was the Apple of AI. It's like, well, yeah, everybody knows how to make an LM. And we publish all these papers to say how we're doing it. And like, we know how to train them.

Like that's why Apple has been so successful for so long. It's not like they have a secret technology that nobody knows about. Right. And it's the same thing with the AI companies and opening. I think kind of felt like it was the Apple of AI. It's like, well, yeah, everybody knows how to make an LM. And we publish all these papers to say how we're doing it. And like, we know how to train them.

We do all these different techniques and we talk about it, but like, but we're so good at it. We're the Apple of AI. And we, we can combine things in a way that no one else can copy. No one else can make a product that is a substitute for ours. Uh, and deep seek said, well, I think we can do that.

We do all these different techniques and we talk about it, but like, but we're so good at it. We're the Apple of AI. And we, we can combine things in a way that no one else can copy. No one else can make a product that is a substitute for ours. Uh, and deep seek said, well, I think we can do that.

And so far the public is like, maybe it's just a fad and people are trying it and we'll get to some reasons why you might not want to do that in a little bit. But like practically speaking, it's like, is this a substitute for the other thing? Does it do what the other thing did? Right.

And so far the public is like, maybe it's just a fad and people are trying it and we'll get to some reasons why you might not want to do that in a little bit. But like practically speaking, it's like, is this a substitute for the other thing? Does it do what the other thing did? Right.