Jon Favreau

But on Monday, Politico's playbook reported on a few reasons that Republicans are still optimistic that I thought could be a useful frame for us to discuss whether we're getting too high on our own supply of hopium here.

The first is the redistricting war, which we've been saying Republicans have basically lost, but maybe not.

After the Supreme Court's decision to further gut the Voting Rights Act last week in Calais, a few southern states are attempting to redraw their maps before the 2026 midterms, even though it may require the legally dubious move of pushing back the dates of their primaries or filing deadlines.

Ron DeSantis signed Florida's new proposed map into law on Monday, though that will also face legal challenges.

And even though Virginia Democrats won their redistricting referendum at the polls the other week,

People are a bit nervous that the Virginia State Supreme Court hasn't yet ruled on whether it's constitutional.

Where do you guys think the math stands at this point?

So I'll go through the likelihood of some of the recent developments that we saw.

So Louisiana is like the most likely where GOP will pick up some seats because the case was about Louisiana, the voting rights case.

And so the most likely result there is the Republicans get one to two extra seats in Louisiana.

There'll be lawsuits there, but that is the most likely since it was directly impacted by the Supreme Court.

So, yeah, the only thing that can stop that is is lawsuit succeeding.

But who knows?

Right.

Tennessee wants to get a seat, wants to pick up a seat, the Tennessee Republicans.

But they would basically be eliminating Republicans.

All Democratic seats in a black district, majority black district that has existed for decades.

And their challenge is they have a timing issue since the candidate filing deadline has already passed.

And the primary is August 6th.

And because they're dismantling the only black district that has existed for decades, under the weird ruling in the Voting Rights Act, you could still have a Section 2 ruling.