Jon Lovett

I also think that a lot of it's coming from Democrats.

A lot of those numbers are coming from Democrats who don't like the party, who are going to vote for Democrats no matter what.

And many of them will crawl over glass to vote for Democrats in the midterms, even though they are not happy with the party.

But I think that the Trump numbers versus sort of the Republican Party numbers...

it it's leading me to think that this as most midterms are it really is going to be a referendum like do you like what's happening with trump or not and do you like the candidate the democratic you might hate the party in washington you might be really sick of them do you like the candidate who is in the ads in your house district or your senate district that you're seeing right now and does that does that candidate effectively tie the republican to donald trump and i know

Certainly when we head to 27 and 28, it is like we need a positive case.

We need to talk about what we're for.

And we should Democratic candidates should absolutely do that in the midterms.

But I think at the end of the day, the choice that voters are going to make are like Trump thumbs up, thumbs down.

How am I going to vote?

This guy and the last guy.

Well, and also, no time like the present to start putting it out there.

Of course.

We haven't had a chance yet to talk about Mary Paltola entering the Senate race in Alaska, which now gives Democrats a real, if quite narrow, path to the majority if she can pull out a win.

And we can also flip Maine, North Carolina, and either Ohio, Iowa, or Texas.

Thoughts?

So Matt Iglesias, who's been rather obsessed with like, hey, if we don't figure out a way to actually win the Senate, nothing's gonna matter because the Senate's always gonna, like, everyone's like, oh, it's a tough Senate map, but it's always a tough Senate map.

There are no more easy Senate maps if you start looking down the road at 28 and the rest.

And so he sort of just looked at the congressional races, special elections from 25 and the overperformance.

So the average of the generic ballot polling for all of these was plus four, which is about where we're sitting right now.