Jon Quast

Energy, there's definitely some risks in energy right now, depending on the company.

The outlook for energy is extremely bright, but some of those businesses, I think the valuation has run away.

I would say that cyclical businesses as well, when it comes to AI infrastructure, there's a lot of businesses that...

typically have lower margins, let's just say, in a normal cycle.

Right now we're experiencing extremely high margins just because there's so much demand.

The question is, how long will that demand be high?

Because at some point it would be,

reasonable to assume that the demand is going to go back down to more normal levels.

The profit margins will go back down to normal levels, in which case you need to value the business based on that more normalized earnings, not peak earnings.

I would say that's the most reasonable thing to expect is that, yeah, you're going to go back to what is normal at some point.

The question is, when will that be?

Yeah, that's so true.

I think a lot of what we're seeing right now in Bitcoin, besides the normal ebb and flow when it comes to cryptocurrency, there are a lot of forced liquidations right now with Bitcoin.

And I don't know if we can put a number on it exactly.

If you borrow money to invest in Bitcoin and the price of Bitcoin goes down, eventually, someone is going to make you sell some of that Bitcoin or deposit more money into your account.

You've got to show that you can cover what you owe.

Exactly right.

They're putting that risk.

They're keeping it on you.

And so, yeah, if you borrow money to buy Bitcoin and it goes down and you can't cover in some other way, you're going to be forced to sell that Bitcoin.