Jon Quast

Yeah, I really like the point that Matt is making.

I think the temptation for investors so often is if a stock is already up big, therefore it can't keep going up big.

And that's just a complete misconception.

What it has done recently is not indicative of what it's going to do in the future.

It's not as extreme as an example, but just would point to NVIDIA here.

From 2023 through 2024, it was a nine-bagger.

and since the end of 2024 it's still gone on to outperform the s p 500 now a year and a half later so what was going on i mean the massive adoption curve of nvidia gpus which has continued to grow and has continued to be sustainable over this this long time period and so

What it has done is not indicative of what it will do.

So I wouldn't say that Lumentum, just because it's up big, doesn't mean it can't keep going up from here.

And as I'm looking at it, I'm honestly not sure what to think with Lumentum, but I would take a slightly different angle than Matt.

I understand his point.

I think it's a very well-founded point.

I will just point out that CEO Michael Hurlston recently said that its supply of products is trailing demand by about 30% right now.

So he's just throwing that number out there.

When you look at its current growth, when you look at how much the hyperscalers intend to increase spending in the coming year, the coming years, and then you look at the imbalance between the supply and demand for what it is,

I would say that it's pretty pricey at over 30 times sales right now.

I don't know if that is quite a good valuation.

I think Lumentum may be a little out in front of itself right now.

That said, if the market is truly growing at a rate that I can't comprehend, then this stock can continue to outperform from here.

Yeah, I absolutely love this question, Tyler.