Jonathan Ferro

Risk cut both ways.

And we've seen that coming out of the pandemic, how wrong the consensus has been.

Jeffrey Rosenberg of BlackRock joins us now to weigh in on all of this.

Jeff, welcome to the show, sir.

The big takeaway for you, unchanged and a chairman who's not looking to change things for the next several months.

Would you agree?

And yet by some measures, by some measures, Conference Board, consumer confidence hasn't been lower in the last decade.

Explain.

Or maybe 4-5% nominal GDP is not what it used to be.

That it's not as labour intensive.

That this growth is coming from tech capex spend that's not changing the lives of everyday Americans, at least not now.

Isn't that a good explanation as to what's going on?

Jeff, I'll ask you a direct question.

I asked this to Torsten Schlag of Apollo in the last hour, and he said no.

Do you have a decent understanding now of this Fed's reaction function?

Well, let me put it another way.

Let's say growth picks up in the way that Stephanie and Torsten are looking for.

And let's say inflation picks up alongside that.

Do you have an understanding of what they will or won't do later this year?

Well, the thing to build on that, Tom, I think we have to confront a new risk.