Jordi Visser

So the S&P is barely off the all time highs.

We have all these companies that have done a tremendous amount of CapEx.

And now with CoreWeave, we actually saw a company that had to cut their CapEx guidance, not for all the bubble reasons,

but because we have shortages of physical stuff.

And so I believe that we are in a late cycle type trade commodities.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index made a three year high this week.

That's not typical in a slow growth period.

The market is rotating away from what has worked now for two to three years.

And these are companies that to me have made a peak.

So growth as a factor has made a peak.

And I believe now we're going to be in a period where

there are new things that are going to be leadership the reason i said november is an important time period october is when mutual fund tax loss selling typically happens 50 of the s p 1500 believe it or not is down for the year so there was a lot of selling that went on in that that caused some of the disruption then you get into november you've got the bank's end of year and as traders and someone who worked at a bank

You have no upside in November, so you don't take as much risk.

That leads to, if people come in to buy call options, you're like, eh, I'm not gonna get in a position where I sell too much.

So you start widening out your markets, people get trapped.

At the same time, buybacks start to slow down because we go in the blackout period and they're really important this time of year.

They're starting to kick back in now and they're gradually every week gonna get bigger, but you end up with that kind of risk.

And then you get into the hedge fund side.

If you're someone who's had a good year this year, and I've talked to some of these portfolio managers over the course of the last couple of weeks,

They don't want to lose the bonus that they have.