Jordi Visser

My understanding in looking at the data is there's about a 98% correlation between the BLS CPI and the true inflation measurement, but CPI is just one month lagged behind.

So with that as the backdrop, it is very notable that inflation went from 0.8 on true inflation before the war to 1.7, almost 1.8, right?

Huge explosion on like a percentage basis, more than double.

We just got the updated numbers because all the April data on April 1st updated, and it dropped from 1.7 to 1.2.

So if you look into the data, what they're showing is that there was four major sectors.

I think it was transport, utility, housing, and food that all now are in very slight, but still deflation, right?

It's negative growth in those sectors.

I, from my perspective, see a battle between structural deflationary pressures and the supersonic tsunami and all this stuff with this short-term oil price that's spiking and should lead to higher inflation.

How do you handicap which one wins?

And like, if I'm an investor, at what point do I stop worrying about the structural stuff and I start worrying about this short-term thing?

And I think you're kind of getting at this with the market basically being like, even if gas prices are higher, we're not going to have a recession.

Is that the market trying to handicap like this whole inflationary thing?

And to be fair, there's a lot of investors who not only aren't paying attention, but they think it they thumb their nose at it.

Right.

Like it's almost like when somebody says it, they're very dismissive of it.

So to your point, their data does not drive the majority of investors decision making.

But here's what's interesting, right?

And again, this is, I don't know.

Exactly why this happens.

But I was looking at, on the transport side, used and new cars.