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Jose Najarro

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
327 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

And that's why I call it Wall Street's blind spots.

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

And it's all centered around one major theme that has kind of sub themes.

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

But the major theme and the major blind spot that I try to call out and that I think most people ignore is that you can't simply analyze a business in terms of what cash flows you think they're going to produce.

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

You have to analyze the business of, okay, what they're going to produce, but then what they're going to do with those cash flows.

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

What are their capital allocation capabilities and philosophy?

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

Because if you have a business that is great and it's producing good cash flows, but then they use that to repurchase stock at a high valuation, then your reinvestment returns of those cash flows are going to be low.

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

And so then you're not necessarily going to be compounding.

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

Similarly, if the company goes and does a huge acquisition with those cash flows, potentially even leverage enough for those acquisitions and paying a huge premium for that acquisition, then your return on reinvested capital is going to be potentially very low.

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

And then the way I kind of like to think about it is good companies that can reinvest their returns at high returns on invested capital.

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

Those are the companies that you should be willing to pay a premium versus traditional kind of valuation metrics like price to news ratios and things of that nature.

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

Because if you have a company that is reinvesting at north of 20% returns their cash flows, that's what you want, because that's really hard to obtain anywhere else.

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

So if you think about the example I like to use, which is really simple to understand is think about Apple 20 years ago, right?

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

So they were launching at that stage roughly the iPod, right?

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

And so they got a lot of earnings from that iPod.

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

It was a success.

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

But then they didn't say, okay, I'm going to go and grab those earnings and pay them back as dividends.

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

What I'm going to do is I'm going to reinvest them into R&D and different things to create the iPhone.

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

Perfect.

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

That was a huge success.

Stock Club
#310: Modern Value Investing w/ Jose Mayora

The return of reinvested capitals of those reinvested capitals was really high, more than 20%, significantly more.