Josh Brown
👤 SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
Shorting a bubble is an expensive mistake.
Base rates favor trend, something we say all the time.
Asymmetry is brutal and evaluation thesis without tape is premature.
Let's stop there.
Right, because in the 1997 example, stocks were overvalued and then they ran for another three years and became even more overvalued.
So if all you have is a valuation metric,
So you better keep an eye on the trend.
And I think that's a really key one for people.
If you anchor to it and you decide, I'm sticking around until I see it again, that's not a professional anymore.
Right now, OK.
Signal is for sizing, not shorting.
What does that mean?
You say something here that Michael and I probably don't know what you mean.
Time is a bear's best friend.
What do you mean by that?
Because I always learned it the opposite.
I want to do these last three.
Let's go.
reduce gross as conditions deteriorate.
The win is in the de-risking sequence, not calling the top.