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Josh Brown

πŸ‘€ Speaker
5157 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

Once Microsoft released Windows or Apple devised its Google search algorithm or Meta created Facebook, the cost of every additional user was tiny.

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

Even NVIDIA, which sells physical objects, outsources the actual manufacturing.

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

That was then.

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

This is now.

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

We have this chart.

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

This shows...

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

This shows the assets of these companies at the end of each quarter.

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

And nobody would mistake these for asset light companies anymore.

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

These are AI industrials, would be the way I would phrase it now.

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

The light blue is showing Q126.

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

And the dark blue is showing the corresponding quarter from five years ago.

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

And what you can see here is that the capital assets that these companies are carrying on their balance sheets are in every case twice as high.

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

Apple is not on this list, which is its own story.

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

So these are basically the hyperscalers plus meta, which thinks it's a hyperscaler.

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

Jeff Bezos was calling AI an industrial bubble.

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

Not in a bearish way.

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

He said the winners will win big and society will benefit, LOL.

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

But the overall return on all the money being spent today probably won't be great.

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

What do you think about this idea?

The Compound and Friends
Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

And do you think, oh, and then they did one more chart.