Josh Dawsey
Appearances
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
It depends who you ask. I mean, I think what Trump wants to get done is a lot of deals with various countries. And then he will, you know, go out and tout his dealmaking process and say, you know, you guys, we had to make these drastic steps and that brought everyone to the table when no other president would have done that. And, you know, look at me. I mean—
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
Someone was pointing out to me, you know, just as Trump has his politics here, every other country's leader has their politics as well. Do they want to be seen as kowtowing to Trump internally? Do they have to take him on more aggressively? I mean, I think it will be individual choices and we'll watch this play out over 90 days.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
But, you know, I was talking in the past couple of days to a couple of the biggest lobbyists in Washington who, you know, raise money for Trump at our always at the White House with various clients. And they're all signing these countries right now because these countries are trying to find someone with close ties to Trump to hopefully get a better deal.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
That's a good question. I mean, I think if you ask some of Trump's advisors, like Peter Navarro, and I think Trump has even said this, that, you know, in one day he'll say the whole goal is to bring back American jobs, impose these tariffs, to stop offshoring, to fundamentally reshape the economy. And then other days he says, I'm up for negotiation, right? Give me the best deal you'll give me.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
What I suspect will happen, and again, you know, I don't want to get into prediction business, particularly with Donald Trump, but I suspect you will see a lot of deals because countries will want to give him things. He will want to have showy Rose Garden press conferences where he announces X, Y, or Z and, you know, probably put some spin on it, so to speak.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
I bet you watch a lot of that play out in the next three months. And I think what you'll also see them do is play some of these countries against each other. Right. If you give me this, I'm going to do this. If you this country is doing this, you've got to do better than that. Sort of this elaborate gamesmanship is what I'm expecting.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
Well, at the White House, I think it depends who you talk to. There were certainly folks who were deeply concerned about the markets and watching them plummet every day and getting lots of calls from corporate America, from lobbyists, from all sorts of folks asking for a pause. And then others who said, you know, we're going to be resilient. We're going to take this pain for a little bit.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
It's a global reordering of the economy. Frankly, it's going to suck for a while, and we're just going to hang tight. Of course, then the president decided to change course. So I think over the past week, you saw really factions, some people who thought, you know, it's time. We've got to do something. This isn't sustainable.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
And other folks who said, you know, this is going to hurt for a little bit.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
Well, I think Chief of Staff Susie Wiles was getting pressure from lots of corporate America, from politicians. I think Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, I was told, was getting lots of calls from people on Wall Street. Peter Navarro gets less of that. He's one of the president's trade advisors. He's probably the biggest tariff hawk in the White House.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
And I think most folks who wanted to see the president relent believe talking to Peter was a waste of time. But I was talking to some lobbyists during this who said, you know, anyone who had any sort of connection to the White House, they were trying to use in this moment just to get messages to Trump about how bad it is.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
Well, I would start this weekend where Scott Besant went down to Florida and met with him. And our understanding is, you know, made a case that you could make deals with these countries. And there were lots of things the administration could do that would not look like a capitulation.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
I also think Trump heard from a lot of different friends in New York about the tariffs while he was down in Florida this weekend. As you know, everyone from New York sort of goes to Palm Beach in those circles in the winter. And his club was packed. He was at various fundraisers, various events at the club.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
Also, multiple people told us that he was watching not just the stock market, but the credit market and the bonds. And we're seeing some bad signs there and that those things mattered. But, you know, it's really hard to know. I mean, I talked to someone who had done a call with Trump on Monday, and this person said on Monday, Trump was saying, you know, I like the position I'm in.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
There's going to be a little bit of pain, but we're going to get through it. And then by Wednesday, you know, I changed his mind. So... It's hard to know, but there were lots and lots of lots of factors, I think, at play here.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
Well, I mean, a lot of the particulars we're still trying to figure out. But on Wednesday, he had a meeting with Scott Pesant, his treasury secretary, and Howard Lutnick. And in that meeting is when he dashed off that Truth Social post at 1.18 p.m. that sort of sent the market surging up.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
I think he had talked to lots of his trade advisors on Monday and Tuesday, you know, throughout the day about what he should do. I think the way it was described to me by multiple people is that Treasury Secretary Scott Pesent has been the key player here in getting him to this outcome.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
Yeah. And I think what the argument was is that in this 90 days, you'll have lots of countries that come to the table and want to make deals with us. And it won't just be viewed as a capitulation at the end of 90 days. You'll have a lot to show for it. We'll see if the White House is able to actually pull that off or not.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
But we're hearing pretty reliably that lots of different countries really are coming to the table and have been in the most recent days because they don't want extraordinary tariffs from the United States on their products.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
Well, I think it is less in the first term, but, you know, it's rare that you see one top advisor to the president, Elon Musk, call another when Peter Navarro is over the trade advisor, a complete and total moron publicly. And this administration, it just—Caroline Leavitt goes out to the podium. She says, we're the most transparent administration ever. Boys will be boys.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
And move it right along, right? It's a certainly—like, there's a pretty remarkable—you know, that word has been used a lot for Trump, and sometimes it's hyperbolic and whatever. But to see, like, people actively working for a president going publicly and calling others— Idiots and morons and, you know, even using the R word that I'm not going to use here because it's a family friendly podcast.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
You know, it's pretty remarkable. I mean, it's pretty remarkable.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
Yeah, I mean, Trump obviously believes in tariffs. It's one of his only things that he's, I think, kept a set position on for many, many decades. I mean, you go back to the 1980s and watch interviews with him, and he was saying the United States was getting ripped off on many tariffs. So I don't think this is going to be the last you hear of them.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
I mean, I think countries that do not give him what he wants in the next 90 days or give him something that looks like a win in the next 90 days probably are going to get more tariffs.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
No. Again, we have no evidence of that, but it's certainly like an open question of something that I think is worth exploring.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
Well, they could have done that. And I think that's a fair question. I think what Trump would say is you are better having negotiations when you have leverage, right? If you go out and say, we're going to make deals and people aren't feeling any pain or any punishment, they might be less likely to come to the table. I think you could have had a lot less of an impact on the economy.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
Certainly the way they did it had a deleterious impact on markets. really sort of threw the world into chaos. And I think there are a lot of questions on whether that is worth it. But I think in Trump's mind, he says, you know, I showed you I was playing hardball here, at least for a week, and I might do this again if you don't give me a deal and you need to come to the table, right?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
So, you know, I think it's certainly a fair question to say you could have just gone out and made deals with these countries one-on-one. Would the countries have been as eager to come to the table Without this, I don't know the answer to that.
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
Well, I think he wants to put China in an uncomfortable spot. He wants to build a wall kind of around them, so to speak, right? I also think in that move, you know, it gave him a way to not just say that he was pausing the tariffs and saying that he was taking a more aggressive stance towards one of these countries, right?
The Journal.
Trump 2.0: Tariff Turnaround
And I think it was to send a message to the rest of the world that, you know, if you come and give me a deal, you're not going to have to be like China, right? He wants to alienate them, to put them on an island. I think that's part of his strategy.