Josh Linville
speaker
128 appearances
2 recordings
2 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard 23 Mar
Josh Linville’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Mar 2026 with 1.
Appearances
Phosphate is probably the exciting one. Potash is boring, but then again, potash is the biggest one. impacted by the whole Canadian rail strike, so Let's hit phosphate go for it. All right Phosphate is going to be the toughest market out there because you just talked about nitrogen Can you you take a scalpel to it and change a little bit there and a little bit here?
Absolutely, you can't take it a hatchet to it Phosphate there are guys who are talking about taking an axe to it The price is very very high The price in relation to grain price is extremely high. And a lot of guys have been putting on pretty good rates of phosphate here for the last few years.
And they're saying, I think if I go soil test right now, it's going to show a large amount of phosphate in that soil. I can cut back. Or, even if I can't cut back, there's nobody holding a gun to my head right now that says I have to put it on this fall. Maybe I just drag my feet until spring. Maybe something comes out of it better suited than where we are today.
Unfortunately, there's a couple global events. one being India, the other one being China, that spooked me that we haven't seen the worst yet.
Talk more about that. On the China side, similar to urea, now not quite to the extent of urea, but kind of like urea, they have been scaling back these exports. They're still letting some stuff go, but it's not near to the extent, not near to the levels that they would historically do. And China, historically speaking, is the largest phosphate producer and exporter in the world.
So when your biggest exporter starts slowing down, restricting those exports, you're going to feel it on the supply side of the S&D. The flip side is India. India is your world's largest buyer, not consumer, but buyer of phosphate. Now, if you remember back in 21, I think it was, Indian farmers started to like riot.
You know, ransacked retail locations lost their mind because phosphate inventory levels dropped down to the lower 1 million ton range. Indian farmers don't truly see world replacement like the rest that we do. They have a flat price.
The importers have to buy the market price, and the government creates a subsidy to help fill in that gap so that they can bring in the product, blow it out to the farmers. The government subsidy has not been big enough to allow them to bring that product in and lose money. And who's going to buy tons just to go lose money and ship to the farmers?
Their inventory levels July, August is believed to have gotten down to about 1.5 million tons when it would normally be about 4 million.
So, the thing that keeps me up right now is that you have U.S. farmers who are sitting there saying, I'm going to stick it to the man. We're going to have a terrible fall. We're going to shove that supply back in the system. That's going to create prices that are going to go down. And you could be right.
But when your world's biggest exporter starts to scale back on what they're sending out to the world, and your biggest buyer has to play catch-up on government subsidy money, that is a dangerous, dangerous game. And
We could sit there and see where our prices slide a little bit, but if that world price starts to go up and everybody's like, I'm not going to buy it, what do you think the manufacturers and traders are going to do? Okay. Wave bye to the ship as it darts off to the east across the horizon, guys.
Yeah. And if we were to say that same thing about nitrogen, 100%. Who has some of the cheapest natural gas prices in the world? We do. We could produce some of the best economically produced product in the world, some of the most sustainable product in the world, because we are adhering that to U.S. and Canadian laws and restrictions. We could do it here. Phosphate's a different beast.
Phosphate, you need to have phosphate rock. And you don't just find that anywhere, everywhere else everybody would already be doing it. Tremendous amount sitting down in Florida. But the problem with Florida is phosphate mining doesn't even break into the conversation about importance. People go to Florida for three reasons. The Florida economy runs for three reasons.
I lived down there for a little while in Tampa. Didn't have to pay taxes, stuff like that, because the tourism. People go down there to watch rockets take off. I got a chance to do it. Phenomenal if you guys get a chance. People do it to go down to swim in the ocean. And people go down to see Mickey Mouse. And they bring a lot of money.
Huge fan. I'll be back down in January for my 15th marathon race in a row.
Actually, this will be my 12th year. I've done every one of what they call the Dopey Challenge. It's a Thursday, a 10K on Friday, a half marathon Saturday, and a full marathon Sunday.
26, 39...
42 what is that 50 miles that's how people practice for a marathon let's run a half today just for the practice 48.6 miles and that doesn't include walking from the parking lot to the start line from the start line back to the parking lot the one year i wore my watch i started it stepping off the plane and i stopped it getting onto the plane i covered uh it's like 115 miles oh my gosh
You've got environmentalists that continue to push against it. When you produce phosphate, a byproduct is gypsum that's got this really, really slight radioactive tinge to it. And you've never been allowed to do anything with it, so you've got to make piles. You go to Florida, the only hills you see are these gypsum stacks. Well, Florida also has a lot of sinkholes.
Showing 61–80 of 128 · page 4 of 7
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