Julia Coronado

Well, it's a strong report in the headlines, but there's also a lot of noise.

We have 178,000 jobs in March after 133,000 job loss in February.

So averaging through that, it's a pretty low but positive rate of hiring.

Well, yes, it is worrying.

We are in what we call a low hire, low fire environment.

So for those people who do lose their jobs, it's increasingly difficult to secure a new position.

And that's not a sign of strength.

It means it reflects a couple of things.

One, it reflects that the budgets of the statistical agencies have been slashed.

So it's harder for them to collect the data and we get more noise in the data.

And it also reflects an economy that is being pretty disrupted.

So there's a lot of shifts and changes in the sectors that are driving hiring.

And that also adds noise to the data.

My pleasure.

Yeah, I think the longer this conflict drags on, and not only the Strait of Hormuz is closed, but now we're looking at possible disruptions in the Red Sea, the more we worry about disruptions beyond just oil.

Other industrial products like aluminum and helium, which are necessary for the semiconductor production process, and also consumer goods in the Red Sea.

So a much broader potential set of supply chain disruptions is possible.

Well, the challenge is that both are at risk.

This is inflationary.

It is also something that can destroy demand and cause recessions, certainly in many countries, if not the U.S.