Julia Coronado

Other industrial products like aluminum and helium, which are necessary for the semiconductor production process, and also consumer goods in the Red Sea.

So a much broader potential set of supply chain disruptions is possible.

Well, the challenge is that both are at risk.

This is inflationary.

It is also something that can destroy demand and cause recessions, certainly in many countries, if not the U.S.

So both are concerns, and that's the challenge for central banks.

The risks to both sides of their mandates are very high right now.

Probably the March report is a little early to see a war impact.

In fact, we're going to have the return of about 30,000 striking workers and a very warm month, probably boosting job gains in March.

So I think it's a little bit early to see it in the jobs numbers.

My pleasure.

Remember that the lifting of the fog was supposed to be a tailwind for the U.S.

economy this year, that we'd made some deals and the dust was settling, and now we've kicked up all the dust all over again.

So the market doesn't quite know what to do with it, but it certainly is another risk factor to add to the list.

Yes, I think one of the reactions to policy chaos in the U.S.

has been to seek safe havens.

That's been a reliable trend, and that certainly seems to remain in place on this news.

And it will take at least a few days to impose the new set of tariffs under the new guidelines and the new legal rationale.

And then, of course, we have hundreds of billions of dollars in refunds to process, which is not likely to happen quickly.

So lots of moving parts to this evolving trade strategy.