Julia Coronado

That we're issuing more, that's exactly right.

And of course, the administration's been very frustrated that long-term interest rates haven't come down, and this would only go in the wrong direction.

So there's a lot of movement.

There was a lot of movement at the end of the week, and markets are opening up again with a lot of response to these rumors of intervention.

So the yen is strengthening, the dollar is weakening.

We'll see how this goes.

So we got some tariff boost to consumer inflation, but we also saw it take a bite out of the labor market.

So how did companies react faced with the turbulence and the pressure on costs?

They got really cautious about hiring.

So we did see the imprint on the economy a little bit differently than we had expected.

Well, of course, they raise prices on anything we buy from Europe, and that just adds to the pressures companies are feeling on costs.

Probably the bigger impact is they just, it's not just the tariffs, it's the global conflict, the geopolitical conflict, and the

uncertainty that comes with that that could, you know, make it harder for companies to make decisions about investing and hiring people.

Well, Tom, I think actually the possibilities are fairly bimodal.

So if you look at the market and what it's priced for, it's priced for several rate cuts next year.

But I think either we're gonna get one and done because things are stabilizing and growth is gonna be okay and the AI story has enough legs to power the economy, or we're really starting, we're in the early game turning of the labor market

and the Fed's gonna have to cut not just to neutral, but through to neutral to an accommodative stance.

So it's one or the other, it feels like to me.

So first, if we start with the second half of this year, we have a read on Q3, and by all indications, it's very solid.

But early indications are Q4 is that it's kind of squishy.