Julian Marshall

And so not justifying anything, but I just really wanted to back up what Jonathan says. You have to understand why they suddenly feel very nervous about this.

Yeah, China obviously is not in the Arctic, but China obviously is interested in the Arctic because it's seen this northern sea route. It's seen that its temporary friend, a marriage of convenience with Russia, gives it opportunities and Russia might need some assistance. And so, lo, it has observer status at the Arctic Council, but also is up there on an island called Svalbard.

Yeah, China obviously is not in the Arctic, but China obviously is interested in the Arctic because it's seen this northern sea route. It's seen that its temporary friend, a marriage of convenience with Russia, gives it opportunities and Russia might need some assistance. And so, lo, it has observer status at the Arctic Council, but also is up there on an island called Svalbard.

Yeah, China obviously is not in the Arctic, but China obviously is interested in the Arctic because it's seen this northern sea route. It's seen that its temporary friend, a marriage of convenience with Russia, gives it opportunities and Russia might need some assistance. And so, lo, it has observer status at the Arctic Council, but also is up there on an island called Svalbard.

Svalbard is a Norwegian island high up in the Arctic Ocean above Norway, but it's very complicated. But there's a treaty in the 1920s in which Russia got mineral rights there as well. And so Russia has mines there. And China decided it'd be really interesting if they had a scientific base there, which they do.

Svalbard is a Norwegian island high up in the Arctic Ocean above Norway, but it's very complicated. But there's a treaty in the 1920s in which Russia got mineral rights there as well. And so Russia has mines there. And China decided it'd be really interesting if they had a scientific base there, which they do.

Svalbard is a Norwegian island high up in the Arctic Ocean above Norway, but it's very complicated. But there's a treaty in the 1920s in which Russia got mineral rights there as well. And so Russia has mines there. And China decided it'd be really interesting if they had a scientific base there, which they do.

And tourists with very long telephoto lenses who appear to be interested in all sorts of things that are going on up there. And you can see what I'm alluded to here. Every great power does this. There is espionage going on up there. Are they about to build a massive port and see the Chinese fleet there? No. Are they taking a keen interest and leveraging their interests with Russia? Yes.

And tourists with very long telephoto lenses who appear to be interested in all sorts of things that are going on up there. And you can see what I'm alluded to here. Every great power does this. There is espionage going on up there. Are they about to build a massive port and see the Chinese fleet there? No. Are they taking a keen interest and leveraging their interests with Russia? Yes.

And tourists with very long telephoto lenses who appear to be interested in all sorts of things that are going on up there. And you can see what I'm alluded to here. Every great power does this. There is espionage going on up there. Are they about to build a massive port and see the Chinese fleet there? No. Are they taking a keen interest and leveraging their interests with Russia? Yes.

Yeah, it's the interrelated things. So often there are what sometimes seem like minor incidents, but they're not minor incidents in the bigger picture of things. If you look at the South China Sea, what looks sometimes like minor incidents regarding Taiwan are not minor incidents because if one side or the other does not stand on that, what looks like a minor point, the bigger point then arises.

Yeah, it's the interrelated things. So often there are what sometimes seem like minor incidents, but they're not minor incidents in the bigger picture of things. If you look at the South China Sea, what looks sometimes like minor incidents regarding Taiwan are not minor incidents because if one side or the other does not stand on that, what looks like a minor point, the bigger point then arises.

Yeah, it's the interrelated things. So often there are what sometimes seem like minor incidents, but they're not minor incidents in the bigger picture of things. If you look at the South China Sea, what looks sometimes like minor incidents regarding Taiwan are not minor incidents because if one side or the other does not stand on that, what looks like a minor point, the bigger point then arises.

So, you know, if the Americans don't stand by Taiwan, what is the point of being an ally of the United States in that part of the world? There isn't any. And so when we come to the Arctic, what we will see over the next few years, sometimes when people do bump up against each other, is what looks like a minor incident is about something much bigger.

So, you know, if the Americans don't stand by Taiwan, what is the point of being an ally of the United States in that part of the world? There isn't any. And so when we come to the Arctic, what we will see over the next few years, sometimes when people do bump up against each other, is what looks like a minor incident is about something much bigger.

So, you know, if the Americans don't stand by Taiwan, what is the point of being an ally of the United States in that part of the world? There isn't any. And so when we come to the Arctic, what we will see over the next few years, sometimes when people do bump up against each other, is what looks like a minor incident is about something much bigger.

And I think the best example is probably what Jonathan talked about earlier, freedom of navigation operations, FONOPS. where if you are sailing through a strait through the northern passage now that goes along the top of Russia in order to get you through the Arctic Circle and down towards Europe, if the Russians say one day... Well, actually, no, you need our permission to do it.

And I think the best example is probably what Jonathan talked about earlier, freedom of navigation operations, FONOPS. where if you are sailing through a strait through the northern passage now that goes along the top of Russia in order to get you through the Arctic Circle and down towards Europe, if the Russians say one day... Well, actually, no, you need our permission to do it.

And I think the best example is probably what Jonathan talked about earlier, freedom of navigation operations, FONOPS. where if you are sailing through a strait through the northern passage now that goes along the top of Russia in order to get you through the Arctic Circle and down towards Europe, if the Russians say one day... Well, actually, no, you need our permission to do it.

And if the Americans or somebody else says, actually, no, we don't, then you start getting these rows. And it's not just about that one ship going through that one passage. It's about a bigger picture. So I return to what I said earlier. We need the forums and we need to keep the lines of communication open in order to navigate both that straight and the future.