Justin Drake

So we have the 1 million from Satoshi, and then we have roughly another million that hasn't moved for a very long time.

Now we need to discount some of that because some zombie addresses that are legitimate will revive over the coming years.

But we should also increase it because there might be some recently spent addresses that will be lost.

And so

5% to 15%, I think, is the correct range.

And I would bet around 10%, 12% or so.

It's very sizable.

It's definitely in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

And one could kind of think through the game theory here

Option A is to try and burn the coins.

The advantage here is that you don't have the hundreds of billions of dollars of sell pressure.

So if you analyze this with a short-term lens, that's the rational move.

But then the whole story of Bitcoin is to be strong property rights.

And so if you have a longer lens,

then you should not want to burn the coins.

And it's very difficult to know which way the community will go.

It's possible that ultimately the decision will be made by large holders, for example, Michael Saylor and N Strategy, right?

Because these large holders, they will receive a copy of both versions of the Bitcoin, the one with the burn and the one without the burn, and they can choose to dump the one that they don't like.

And we know that Saylor is in favor of burning.

And so he can single handedly potentially, quote, manipulate the market and get the outcome that he wants.