Justin Ho

Matt Smith is director of commodity research at the data and analytics firm Kepler.

Even a year from now, the futures market is betting that prices will still be higher than they were before the war.

Smith says that's because once hostilities end, demand for oil will pick up, especially from countries that depend on the Middle East for their oil.

When you go even farther out on the curve, say five plus years from now or even longer, prices fall to $60 a barrel or even less.

Dylan White, an oil market analyst with Wood McKinsey, says that means by then the market is expecting a glut of oil.

White says oil-producing countries, including the U.S., have been ramping up production.

And demand for oil may well plateau in the next decade.

White's firm, Wood McKenzie, says the war in the Middle East could cause oil and gas importing countries to intensify their embrace of renewables.

And for oil prices.

I'm Justin Ha for Marketplace.

That's not surprising to us.

Another big factor is the AI build-out, which has created demand for lots of inputs such as computers and electronics.

If inventories get too low, you're going to see some increases in manufacturing output to restore inventories on the part of businesses.

Thank you.

Your listeners may remember there was a really bad heat wave that year.

And it led to kind of all kinds of issues sort of throughout the European food supply.

So, you know, we saw olive harvests getting damaged in Spain.

We saw chickens getting really hot in the heat and chicken production sort of taking a hit in the UK.

And they...

Estimated for European food prices, it raised those prices by about 0.7%.