Justin Wolfers

I know that your podcast is called Markets.

Mate, sometimes we've got to pause on the world.

The world's where the action is.

So yes, markets are responded to this.

I'm not sure I'd give exactly the same explanation that you would, Ed.

Okay.

So here's the problem, right?

The bloke comes up with a harebrained idea every day.

Nine out of 10 times he tacos.

Trump always chickens out.

And the world moves on.

And so if you're a trader, you want to discount these because if you responded to each and every one of them, you'd sell off.

And then the next day the markets would rise as it became clear it wouldn't happen.

And then you lost a lot of money.

Yeah.

So you've got to scale your response to the likelihood that Trump will actually follow through.

If Trump follows through, in the short run, the obvious is he launches a trade war with the European Union.

Um, because remember he's talking about 25% tariffs by June.

You can't just, you know, it's not as much as he's picked out Germany that he wants to go after the United Kingdom.

You don't just declare a trade war on particular members of the EU, the entire union response, the EU plus Norway, plus the United Kingdom collectively is 22% of American exports.