Justin Wolfers

Every time Trump steps into tariffs, everyone puts out new research notes saying that the odds of recession have gone up. And every time Trump retreats, they re-evaluate and they say the odds have fallen. And the bigger the retreat, the bigger the revision. So what this says is, yes, the chances of recession have retreated. They've retreated because Trump has retreated from Trumpism.

If he kept doing that, we'd be in great shape. Vor etwa drei Monaten gab ich eine Vorstellung, die ich glaube, eine nützliche Regelung ist. Vielleicht war es vor zwei Monaten. Wenn Trump völlig zurückgeht. Eigentlich lassen Sie mich den puren Hintergrund geben. Am 20. Januar hätte ich gesagt, die Chancen einer Rezession mit einer normalen amerikanischen Regierung wären 10%.

If he kept doing that, we'd be in great shape. Vor etwa drei Monaten gab ich eine Vorstellung, die ich glaube, eine nützliche Regelung ist. Vielleicht war es vor zwei Monaten. Wenn Trump völlig zurückgeht. Eigentlich lassen Sie mich den puren Hintergrund geben. Am 20. Januar hätte ich gesagt, die Chancen einer Rezession mit einer normalen amerikanischen Regierung wären 10%.

If he kept doing that, we'd be in great shape. Vor etwa drei Monaten gab ich eine Vorstellung, die ich glaube, eine nützliche Regelung ist. Vielleicht war es vor zwei Monaten. Wenn Trump völlig zurückgeht. Eigentlich lassen Sie mich den puren Hintergrund geben. Am 20. Januar hätte ich gesagt, die Chancen einer Rezession mit einer normalen amerikanischen Regierung wären 10%.

Es ist eigentlich niedriger als normal. Normalerweise gibt es eine Rezession rund um sieben Jahre. I said it was a 1 in 10 chance because the global economy wasn't going haywire. There didn't look to be a pandemic coming. Oil prices weren't going crazy. Things looked good on January 20.

Es ist eigentlich niedriger als normal. Normalerweise gibt es eine Rezession rund um sieben Jahre. I said it was a 1 in 10 chance because the global economy wasn't going haywire. There didn't look to be a pandemic coming. Oil prices weren't going crazy. Things looked good on January 20.

Es ist eigentlich niedriger als normal. Normalerweise gibt es eine Rezession rund um sieben Jahre. I said it was a 1 in 10 chance because the global economy wasn't going haywire. There didn't look to be a pandemic coming. Oil prices weren't going crazy. Things looked good on January 20.

Then Trump did a lot of stuff and Elon did a lot of stuff and people got very upset and consumer confidence crashed. Then at that point I said, if Trump were to fully retreat from the full Trumpism, the chances of recession would be 25%. And if Trump were to fully lean in, the chances would be 75%.

Then Trump did a lot of stuff and Elon did a lot of stuff and people got very upset and consumer confidence crashed. Then at that point I said, if Trump were to fully retreat from the full Trumpism, the chances of recession would be 25%. And if Trump were to fully lean in, the chances would be 75%.

Then Trump did a lot of stuff and Elon did a lot of stuff and people got very upset and consumer confidence crashed. Then at that point I said, if Trump were to fully retreat from the full Trumpism, the chances of recession would be 25%. And if Trump were to fully lean in, the chances would be 75%.

Just think of that as a spectrum and then think where we are on that spectrum and it's basically going to be some average of those two numbers. If you think we're halfway between the full Trump and no Trump, then you think there's a 50-50 chance of a recession. If you think the China back down is actually even bigger than that, you might say it's a 40% chance of recession.

Just think of that as a spectrum and then think where we are on that spectrum and it's basically going to be some average of those two numbers. If you think we're halfway between the full Trump and no Trump, then you think there's a 50-50 chance of a recession. If you think the China back down is actually even bigger than that, you might say it's a 40% chance of recession.

Just think of that as a spectrum and then think where we are on that spectrum and it's basically going to be some average of those two numbers. If you think we're halfway between the full Trump and no Trump, then you think there's a 50-50 chance of a recession. If you think the China back down is actually even bigger than that, you might say it's a 40% chance of recession.

I think that's roughly a useful way of thinking about this.

I think that's roughly a useful way of thinking about this.

I think that's roughly a useful way of thinking about this.

I think the most helpful answer I can give you is it's really freaking hard to know. That's actually really important because now put yourself in the shoes of a business person whose economist tells him, I have no freaking idea. So a couple of things about the China pause. The China tariff pause is 90 days. Tim, was solltest du tun? Lass uns sagen, dass du Lohnräder produzierst.

I think the most helpful answer I can give you is it's really freaking hard to know. That's actually really important because now put yourself in the shoes of a business person whose economist tells him, I have no freaking idea. So a couple of things about the China pause. The China tariff pause is 90 days. Tim, was solltest du tun? Lass uns sagen, dass du Lohnräder produzierst.

I think the most helpful answer I can give you is it's really freaking hard to know. That's actually really important because now put yourself in the shoes of a business person whose economist tells him, I have no freaking idea. So a couple of things about the China pause. The China tariff pause is 90 days. Tim, was solltest du tun? Lass uns sagen, dass du Lohnräder produzierst.

Anrufe deinen chinesischen Anbieter heute Abend und frage ihn, wie lange es dauert, um 10.000 Lohnräder zu produzieren. Und dann, um sie auf einen Schiff in die Vereinigten Staaten zu bringen und sie in beide Enden klar zu machen. 89 Tage, hoffe ich. 89,8 Tage, ja. Und das Problem ist, dass die Pause gestern veröffentlicht wurde. Das bedeutet, dass du 0,8 von einem Tag verlieren wirst. Ja.