Kai Ryssdal

That's a big reason continuing unemployment claims have been falling.

Another reason is the growing share of job seekers who aren't filing those claims.

Betsy Stevenson at the University of Michigan says you need a work history to get those benefits.

And then there are the folks who have been filing claims month after month after month, says Ali Bustamante, an economist at the University of New Orleans.

to the point where many have maxed out their benefits.

Most states allow people to collect unemployment for about six months, and the share of job seekers who reach that maximum before finding a job has climbed, from around 30% in 2022 to around 40% at the start of this year, according to data from the Labor Department.

Where the labor market goes from here depends in part on where the war in Iran goes from here, says Michelle Meyer at the Mastercard Economics Institute.

The key question is over the duration of this shock.

She says if the war drags on.

If energy prices remain at uncomfortably high levels, then I think you start to see the shift in behavior, both corporate behavior and consumer behavior.

She says that could make life even harder for job seekers, especially in sectors like manufacturing that are the most sensitive to energy prices.

I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace.

Supply chain disruptions because of the war fall into both of the buckets I mentioned a minute ago.

Growth and inflation.

You can't grow and prices are going to go up if supply chains break down, right?

That is a challenge that affects all kinds of businesses.

Yesterday, we heard about what it means for a direct-to-consumer flour business.

Nonprofit organizations are feeling it, too, in sometimes more complex ways.

That's why we've called Yanti Chiripto.

She's the president and CEO of Save the Children U.S.