Kamila Dominovsky

OPEC and its allies have lost some of their leverage over markets now that United Arab Emirates has left the group.

But the bigger problem is that key members rely on the Strait of Hormuz to export crude.

So whatever OPEC announces, the biggest question remains, how many ships are getting through that key waterway?

And the answer to that is not many between Iranian tolls and the U.S.

blockade.

In the U.S., gasoline prices had been easing since the ceasefire announcement, but between the global oil supply crisis and U.S.

refinery outages, prices are rising aggressively again.

Camila Dominovsky, NPR News.

The IEA still anticipates that the global appetite for oil will grow this year, but less than it expected before the war.

That's because of supply shortages, higher prices, and direct impacts like the suspension of flights in the Middle East.

In a similar report this week, the oil cartel OPEC, which represents oil producers, estimates that demand for oil would be unchanged for the year overall.

The two groups often disagree.

Neither body predicts a major hit to the global economy, although the IEA warns that if oil prices remain high for a protracted period, that would weigh on growth.

Camilla Dominovsky, NPR News.

This past weekend, 14 vessels per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the trade data platform Kepler.

That's down sharply from the pre-war average of 100 a day, and that's before any US blockade was imposed.

Because ships take a long time to travel by sea, the world had a bit of a buffer, insulating importers from shortages, but that's gone now.

The last ship carrying jet fuel from the Persian Gulf to Europe arrived last week, reports the commodity intelligence group Argus.

There are no more on the way right now.

The oil cartel OPEC remains optimistic that the supply crisis won't tank the global economy, holding forecasts for economic growth and global oil demand unchanged.