Karim Sadjadpour

I think you have a lot of people in the MAGA base who even oppose air power against Iran and the threat of getting pulled into another Middle Eastern war.

So I think the likelihood of boots on the ground is very slim.

very low, but one possibility, which I've spoken to a lot of people both within the United States and Israel, is that if the United States does decide to take military action, there's a decent likelihood that we will try to take out Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.

You know, he goes underground in these moments of crises, perhaps, you know, 150 feet underground in a bunker.

But that didn't protect the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.

You know, the Israelis bombed his bunker.

And what's interesting is he died from suffocation.

He didn't die because the bombs dropped on his head and killed him.

His body was intact, but he died from suffocation.

And so that is certainly a possibility.

And

The reality, Scott, is that no one can predict what comes the day after that.

And the big question for the future of the Islamic Republic of Iran is the cohesion of its security forces.

Up until now, we've seen enormous popular protests, enormous popular discontent, but the regime's security forces, the Revolutionary Guards, the Basij militia,

who collectively probably number in the hundreds of thousands.

Revolutionary Guards are probably 150,000 men by siege, perhaps double that.

We haven't seen yet signs of splinters or fissures amongst them.

And the question is, if the United States decides and carries out an assassination against Iran's supreme leader, what happens to the cohesion of those forces?

Do they...

Do they rally together and do they believe it's either kill or be killed and hunker down and survive to kill another day?