Karl Thiel

And that is basically a valuation argument.

So this is not usually where we're coming from for rule breakers, but I think it's a reasonably compelling case.

in which you have a company that's guided for earnings per share in the $6.50 range there, a little bit to either side of that.

Revenue is going to be around $47 billion this year.

That gives them a P.E.

multiple of less than seven.

I think that number alone tells you that there's some trouble at this company.

But I think that trouble is pretty well recognized at this point.

They have one of the worst patent cliffs in the industry.

A patent cliff is when a drug that you've been selling for a very high margin, lots and lots of money, suddenly goes off patent, generic competition comes in, and your market share tanks, and pricing pressure goes way up.

That's going to happen with Eliquis.

That's going to happen in the 2028 range with Opdivo.

It's a challenge.

This is a company where you're going to see both profits and revenue drop for a period of years.

But I think that is more than priced in at this point.

And the company is paying a dividend in the 5.6% yield range.

And it's a dividend that I think you can count on.

They have a 93-year history of paying a dividend.

93 consecutive years.

There's no reason they're going to stop doing that.