Kathryn Anne Edwards

Okay.

The number of jobs that we added in 2025 was remarkably low.

The second thing I say is it is not too late for 2025 to be a recession year.

Hmm.

The way that the United States declares recession is with an incredible amount of lag.

So when someone says, when the National Bureau of Economic Research, Business Cycle Dating Committee comes down and says a recession has started, they might declare in June that a recession started last October.

You know, we don't really start a recession until we're deep in it.

There's lots of reasons for that.

Mostly good.

We don't want to instill panic.

We want to give a chance for policy to make a difference.

But this report and this revision,

keeps in play that we could be in a recession where the declaration was to have started last fall or last spring.

It's not out of play yet.

So the fact that it was such a low job producing year means that we're still at risk of

you know, one really bad jobs report, a couple of really bad rounds of layoffs in an aggregate number, and we'll have decided that we've been in a recession for six months.

That's not unheard of.

A lot of recessions are small and weak, and a report like this could push us into one.

I don't think that that's what's going to happen, but it doesn't take it off the table.

Well, there is a little bit of when you buy a new car, you suddenly see it everywhere on the road.