Katie Martin

I do think that sort of the most likely outcome is that U.S.

markets do pretty well, especially if we can have some credibility restored to the Federal Reserve.

But the risks are substantial and I do think there's a reasonable chance that the US gets its ass kicked by the rest of the world again in 2026 and beyond.

So really the extent to which you care about that matters what currency you're in, what hedging policies you've put in place and just where you're domiciled.

But people do just want money.

a little bit more compensation and certainty around putting their stakeholders' money to work in the US with all of the policy uncertainty that's hanging over them.

The thing that I think people are probably not worried enough about is

is the Fed.

We are all sitting around like diligent little soldiers and podcasters and journalists saying, oh, I wonder which Kevin will be the new chair of the Federal Reserve.

Will it be this Kevin?

Will it be that Kevin?

Maybe it'll be a Rick.

Maybe it'll be somebody else.

And we're not seeing the big picture here, which is that Trump and Besson and Stephen Moran, who's now at the Fed and other people have made it very clear that they want the Fed to look very different to how it does now.

And I just, you know, there's a part of me that thinks, are we sort of playing this game the old way and thinking, okay, which Kevin is it going to be?

When actually what they're planning is a much bigger reconfiguration of the entire organization.

It's a tail risk, but I think it's one that's worth taking seriously.

Is that how it works?

I think that's accurate.

And I think that's a very reasonable representation of everything that money managers are saying to me at the moment.