Katie Martin

Are you feeling good?

Record highs in stocks, baby.

Hold my beer, yeah.

7,000 and something in the S&P, boys and girls.

Well, I think the thing that does make sense is, as you and I and regular listeners to this show will know, markets are forward-looking things, right?

So they dropped in anticipation of an energy crunch.

So before the oil actually started drying up, markets like dumped.

And now they're jumping in anticipation of a resolution.

So yes, I know there is no lasting resolution to this conflict in Iran yet.

But if you're feeling pretty bullish about the world, feeling pretty positive in general, then the direction of travel is towards things getting better rather than things getting worse.

And that's enough.

That's like fine.

So that- Yeah, it will be scary and horrible.

That is the market's assumption.

So the market is saying, look, a few things can go wrong.

Yeah, one of them is the oil price just hockey sticks, goes to like $200 a barrel and stays there.

Yeah.

Another is that central banks have a bit of a kind of brain freeze and jack up interest rates really hard to deal with inflation risks, which I think everyone agrees would be a bad idea.

And it's something that they're certainly suggesting they're not going to do just yet.

And the third thing is that like the US economy falls into a recession, which nobody thinks is terribly likely.