Keith Bradsher

The U.S.

was not in a good position to begin with.

And the Biden administration had struggled with the same issue previously.

The Biden strategy was to proceed cautiously and avoid an outright confrontation, unlike Trump.

But the Biden administration also had the weakness of not really slowing down China's remarkable race towards dominance of an extremely wide range of manufacturing industries.

And so the Trump administration felt a need to go considerably farther.

And that has now triggered an outsized response from Beijing.

That's exactly right, Natalie.

Yes.

The Trump administration tariffs have resulted in a significant drop in Chinese exports to the United States, more than 20 percent this year compared to last year.

On the other hand, China has been ramping up exports to other countries, such as Vietnam, and you get estimates that as much as 85% of China's exports to Vietnam then end up in the United States.

So Chinese exporters have been very nimble in finding alternative routes through countries like Vietnam and Mexico to still reach the U.S.

market.

But the Trump administration felt it needed to do something because the US industrial base has been rapidly hollowing out.

And without a strong manufacturing sector, the US cannot remain a strong country with a strong conventional military that can protect not only the United States, but other democracies around the world.

I expect a dramatic announcement of temporary agreements and incremental changes.

I think that what we will see is a postponement, for example, of China's rare earth restrictions, but not a repeal of them.

I think we are likely to see some Chinese purchases of American soybeans, but not on a scale that they previously were.

One other aspect that we'll probably see is some kind of Chinese promise to limit exports of chemicals used in making fentanyl.

And then we may see a promise to get together and have a more in-depth conversation in China next February.