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Kelvin Davidson

Kelvin Davidson

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
558 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

with that increase in the speed limit, people are showing a bit of a willingness to take up that higher LVR debt.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

Yeah, so, yeah, some kind of return to normality.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

I mean, obviously, the December numbers were just sort of off the charts in terms of craziness with all that bank switching going on or refi, as it's called in the industry.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

So, yeah, it all came back off that massive peak in January, which was as expected.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

And we've already seen that the sales volumes numbers dropped.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

tail off.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

So you'd anticipate the same thing to come through in the lending data.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

So we definitely saw that.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

About $14 billion of lending in December, as I say, driven by that bank switching, came back to about $6 billion in January, which there's going to be a seasonality thing in there as well with January always being quieter.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

So it was always likely to fall.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

But when you compare January back to January 2025,

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

it was still up about a billion dollars or 900 million so you know not bad in its own right it just looks quite soft on a chart when you're comparing it back to that crazy december spike so um yeah it wasn't a bad month but quieter than december

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

All the loan types pretty much settled back.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

House purchase activity was down a little bit year on year, down around 5% in dollar terms.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

So, yep, that was kind of expected too because it did look like there was a bit of sort of a pull forward of activity into December.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

Maybe people were trying to lock in some cashbacks there as well.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

So, yeah.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

you know that house purchase activity for January was was a little bit softer not too bad but kind of had the expected fall switching was actually still you know pretty strong compared to anything other than December you know going back to November or prior there was still a bit of activity there and I'd been into the banks a couple of times over the past few weeks and they did expect

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

I suppose just a little bit of a tail end of that switching activity.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
The January lending reset & the record-breaking FHB

You know, there was always going to be, I guess, a bit of a lag there with some loans to actually get them drawn down.

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