Podcast Appearances
and going yeah but it's still expensive and that's right you can have those two things at the same time and and i just looked before at how much our triple ci has changed over the longer run um the level of cost is still about 30 higher than it was in march 2020 so i think you know you'd still say a new build is as relatively people are going to be looking at this going it's still costing me a lot isn't it but
the the point is that the inflation rate is lower than it used to be so it can still cost you a lot in level terms but not growing as much as it as it was say four or five years ago so um just a wee distinction there now in terms of what the official cash rate tries to do and more broadly in terms of prices it's targeting the growth rate not the level of cost so maybe there's a wee segue there um but yeah i mean in terms of the ocr last week uh um you know reserving commentary iran i
i don't have a lot to add i mean it's just this this ongoing up and down who knows you think it's looking better than it's then it's worse and oil prices are up and down and um i've seen the value of my kiwi savers come back so so you know there must be uh there must be some sort of optimism in there about this thing settling down but yeah then you um then you wake up this morning and see that it feels like another escalation again so i think you know probably nothing too much has changed in terms of the message it's really just
I kind of got to wait and see and hope it all comes down.
I mean, just I guess the key thing we got out of last week was that
on balance you probably think an official cash rate increase is is coming sooner than what was previously thought doesn't necessarily mean it's coming tomorrow or next month but you know maybe just that sense that you know the reserve bank's gonna have to get on top of this at some point so potentially raising that official cash rate sooner than what was previously thought but yeah there's a lot of uncertainty around that and people have to make their their best decision in that in that environment we still hope it comes down so
Yeah, not sure that adds too much to what we already know.
Yeah, I think this is one of those ones where, you know, a picture paints a thousand words.
It's good if people can actually see it on a chart, just how stark this turnaround has been.
I don't think me describing the numbers will quite do it justice.
Anyway, carry on.
We'll push the boundaries on innovation, yeah.
I mean, but it's been a sharp turnaround.
So, you know, even prior to this whole Iran situation and talk of earlier OCR increases, people were already anticipating that the medium-term sort of path for interest rates was up, even before Iran.
I mean, we kind of knew that sort of tail end last year, I think.
Reserve Bank kind of signalled rate cuts were over.
And, you know, the next move would be up at some stage.
So people are already kind of banking on that.
And we've seen it come through in the in the mortgage lending figures.
So people shifting out to longer fixed rates, you know, when interest rates are coming down, they're all floating or fixing short, reach that turning point.