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Kelvin Davidson

Kelvin Davidson

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
1066 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

Lots of things as you'd expect.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

They talked about spare capacity being a key factor there, bringing down inflation again, and sort of fits really strongly with the guidance they gave in the last statement.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

So yeah, and statements like quotes from the release, things like, if the economy evolves as expected, they'll keep monetary policy accommodative for some time.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

So sort of hints at no rush to shift.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

However, one thing that did change, just ever so slightly, was the official cash rate track itself.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

So now it looks pretty likely that they plan to, rather than the first increase coming in early next year, early 2027, they now plan to push that through into late 2026.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

Now the timing's a little bit hard to pin down because of the way they express the numbers.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

I guess they give themselves a wee bit of

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

regular room but it looks like tail end of last tail end of this year i should say so yeah i mean there's nothing necessarily surprising there either because it's it's what markets are anticipating it's kind of what we know if the economy does start to pick up we'll probably see a bit more inflationary pressure and you'd want to

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

take away some of that monetary stimulus that we've got now.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

So they use the phrase settings will gradually normalize.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

So implies a steady return to sort of about that 3% mark over a series of months.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

So yeah, I guess a bit for everyone, as I say, I mean, if you were in the camp that says, OK, no rush to tighten, well, you've definitely got that because they're not suggesting any rush to tighten.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

but also if you were saying okay well i think they'll start tightening this year well you know that's that's in there as well so yeah i'd call it i'd call it um you know as expected um pretty pretty steady you know nothing sort of shocking in there the language seemed the same so um yeah i guess we'll kind of you know digest it and move on

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

I'll just, I guess, what might happen to mortgage rates?

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

I mean, the banks have probably been reacting ahead of this anyway, so I think it probably just kind of backs up what they had expected to happen.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

So, you know, not necessarily a reaction in mortgage rates, I don't suppose.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

They've already lifted a little bit across some of those terms recently, and I think that just probably is what they've done today with that change in the OCR track, just sort of

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

you know backs up what's already happened from actual mortgage rates so yeah that's that's part of when we've already touched on the house price outlook I guess it's there's still a sort of balance out there with yeah you know sort of some some financing benefits to come through as people roll off higher mortgage rates but

The NZ Property Market Podcast
OCR hold - balanced and patient

still a cautious attitude at the same time.