Podcast Appearances
We'll have to wait till September to get...
the q2 numbers and who knows it hopefully i mean hopefully it's all over in you know a few weeks time so yeah this this might uh it might be hard to really get a true picture of all of this in the data we might not know for a long time anyway so that's um kind of a wee bit of a a bit of intrigue or a little bit of a tricky one around all of this but
I mean, yeah, in terms of the bad news is good scenario, I guess, you know, for people, that's only really a thing in relation to people with debt and, you know, worried about higher interest rates is that
because actual activity didn't rise as much as what people might have been anticipating, that implies that there's still spare capacity out there.
This actual growth hasn't really absorbed any of that spare capacity.
So people are still operating below where they could be.
That's a sort of downwards influence on inflation.
Therefore, suggesting the Reserve Bank still has a bit of scope to leave interest rates where they are.
They don't necessarily need to be rushing to push the OCR up because
They've always said all along, you know, we think there's a decent degree of spare capacity.
It's probably still there because the economy itself hasn't really been growing that much.
know yeah argues for for flatter official cash rate flatter mortgage rates you know yes there's other influences on mortgage rates what's going on in global markets that's that's i think seen a couple of banks at least raise their raise their mortgage rates in the past couple of days but yeah if you want to take a if you've got debt and you want to take a a positive view of this the positive view is that it you know argues for for lower for longer interest rates
so um yeah i think i mean do we do we pay too much attention to gdp numbers probably not it's it's kind of old news um but there is that sort of silver lining in there for people who who want interest rates to stay low i mean in terms of what the reserve bank does well yeah we'll see what what comes out over the next couple of days um you know like i say they've been pretty clear all along i think the speaker pass spare productive capacity out there so not necessarily going to be in any rush to raise the official cash rate and of course
there's nothing they can do about higher oil prices and higher imported petrol prices and all of that anyway.
So those sort of so-called first-round inflation effects, what we're all paying now at the petrol station, that's something they simply can't do anything about.
So that fact, as well as the spare capacity I think is out there, I guess for me just means it's, you would hope for now...
a sort of yep we're not losing sight of inflation for sure you know we're still worried about it but we don't necessarily think there's a need to rush either you would you would hope that's the the sort of communication message that that came through and actually that was sort of the message at the last monetary policy statement even before this this whole thing kicked off they acknowledged yep we're probably gonna have to raise the official cash rate at some point but we're not gonna do it yet so
know maybe that line sticks around a lot more uncertainty around that now of course but yeah that you think underlying it all is is hopefully that message so um yeah it's kind of where i sit
Yeah, I mean, in lieu of having a big sort of massive spreadsheet model of the economy and how all these things interact and what the weightings are, I've got a spreadsheet in my head that's kind of a bit of a gut feel.
I mean, yeah, there's a few things going on there.