Podcast Appearances
With interest rates down, I guess servicing debt will in a lot of cases be cheaper than paying rent, even though rents themselves
tailing off a little bit um you've got kiwi saver you've got the lvr speed limit so that that's a biggie i mean um reading article this morning just just emphasizing the fact that you don't need 20 you know there's a big allowance there at the banks for people getting in with 10 or 15 so you don't necessarily have to wait for that 20 mark before you can think about you know you can think about your deposit being big enough and accessing the market you can get in with less
and that's that's been a big factor for first-time buyers for quite a long time something like half of of all first-time buyer loans are done at less than 20 equity so um so yeah all those things helping first-time buyers um on the flip side there's you know the when when we look at market share always has to add 100 so if someone's strong someone else's is a bit below normal and i guess the group that's below normal at the moment is movers or relocating owner occupiers they're running at sort of 24 25 percent
um you know there's so there's always people moving around but typically that that mover number might be higher to 30 or closer to 30 so um yeah just a little bit of caution out there still maybe some job insecurity you know people just thinking you know what i'll stay where i am rather than rather than doing that trade up
So that's kind of the flip side of first home buyers.
And then, yeah, mortgage multiple property owners, you know, you're sort of including your cliched mum and dad investors, probably running somewhere in the middle, you know, not too high, not too low, sort of around about normal, which is sort of 24, 25% for them.
So, yeah, first home buyer strength, other owner occupiers, maybe a bit softer than normal and mortgaged investors sort of sitting somewhere in the middle.
So, and that's something we've seen for
For a little while, probably he'd characterize 2025 really as that was the big picture theme, not only for December or Q4, but probably the year as a whole.
And yeah, we'll see how it plays out this year.
Now, just flag up, watching data this week, biggie for me, my second favorite data set is Reserve Bank lending figures.
So that's out on Thursday this week.
Now, big interest around, so this is for December, big interest around bank switching.
You know, did the 1.5% cashbacks in November.
led to a real big spike in people switching banks definitely heard anecdotally that that was the case whether the whether the lags in the process have just meant it shows through in December or whether it's January you're never never quite sure but that'll be a biggie to watch you know has that driven bank switching up a lot and then of course the LVRs were loosened on the 1st of December too so again maybe the lags aren't quite sort of long enough yet to allow it to flow through to the hard data but um
yeah that'll be one to keep an eye on as well i've heard maybe anecdotally that you know there's still just a little bit of caution around higher lvr finance you know people um yep first time buyers are getting in with reduced deposit but nothing's really changed you know there's still this sort of cautious attitude there both from from banks and borrowers so um yeah maybe a lot of switching maybe not so much in terms of a jump in higher lvr lending even though the speed limit's loosened
So that's the buggy for me.
Second favorite data set, my favorite, of course, is bioclassification from Cotality.
But heaps of information in that lending data set too.
yeah i don't know those are my thoughts mate anything else on your mind anything interesting over the weekend uh yeah not not uh not too much i i'm i'm definitely uh in the same boat with school holidays it's felt pretty good up until now this this last week feels like it's just a week too long you know uh back at school today would be ideal so anyway but but come next monday and say yep kids back at school depending on when they exactly start um i know you're a couple of days later but uh