Ken Griffin
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And when you look at the 10-year yield point or the 30-year yield point, what you're really observing is how much risk premium, how much insurance premium does the market demand for higher inflation?
Because remember, you're lending the money to the US government for 10 or 30 years at a time at a fixed rate.
So you want to think very long and hard about what rate do you lend money to the US government, which is running a staggering deficit,
that is now running very, very easy monetary policy relative to the inflationary pressures that we're facing.
What risk premium do you demand to do so?
So, although the Fed has brought short-term interest rates down, what it has really done, it has unnerved the bond market community that invests or commits capital for 10 years or 30 years at a time.
And why does that matter?
Because capital formation, building a new factory,
is funded with 10 and 30-year debt.
So the hope that we will stimulate the economy, that we will encourage the investments that we need in America, that are all funded with long-term debt, are actually being undermined by the easy monetary policy at the Fed today.
Well, there's two markets.
There's the fixed income market, which is anxious about this journey.
And there's the equity market.
The equity market loves an easy money story.
So what we're seeing is a tale of two very different worlds from the perspective of two very different investor groups.
Your fixed income investor doesn't participate directly in the easy money policies.
In fact, they're adverse to that.
They're anxious about that.
How much will inflation erode the value of the dollar that I lend to the government today?
The equity market thrives on this.