Ken Griffin

If you look at both the immigration policies

The fiscal policies and monetary policies, it's a very pro-inflationary environment.

And I think the markets are just way too calm about the prospects of a substantial move higher in inflation.

So I think that is a really interesting debate.

And I remember when Janet Yellen became the chair of the Fed, she had a very simple framework that she thought about.

She thought about the fact that the U.S.

had gone through one significant recession and the risk of another recession and the ensuing job loss and human capital loss.

atrophy that would go with a second adjacent or nearby recession would be incredibly damaging for millions of Americans.

You lose your job twice in just a few years, you really do become separated from the broader employment market.

And that was the lens through which she made a number of decisions to be in

both at the time and in retrospect, reasonably dovish in terms of managing interest rate policy.

Right here, right now, I think that argument is a bit hard to reach.

And the Fed's trying to make a decision between buying some downside protection on the labor market and managing inflation, and I think they're making a decision that puts them at risk

if we do see inflation re-accelerate early into 2026.

I mean, we're still all above target.

Right?

I mean, let's just cut to the chase.

Inflation is substantially above target and substantially above target in all forecasts for next year.

I mean, it's part of the reason the dollar is depreciated by about 10% in the first half of this year.

It's the single biggest decline in the U.S.