Kim Kahn

Roughly 20% of the world's daily oil consumption is now effectively trapped.

Crude prices are up another 5%.

Prediction market CalSheet now shows it's essentially a coin flip on whether Iran officially closes the strait.

The odds of Iran effectively keeping Hormuz closed for seven or more days are before May, 45%, before August, 55%, and before 2027, 53%.

UBS says renewed attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf, along with the Chinese measures to curb fuel exports, have pushed prices higher.

The refined product market is also showing signs of stress due to missing Middle East exports.

Eric Nuttall, senior portfolio manager at Nine Point Partners, notes,

We are experiencing the largest loss of oil supply in history, three times bigger than the 1973 Arab oil embargo.

The level of complacency to me is staggering.

A crew tanker near an Iraqi port was targeted by an Iranian remote-controlled explosive boat, and a second tanker anchored off Kuwait was taking on water after an explosion.

China's government has told major refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline, prioritizing domestic supply as the regional conflict escalates.

And Goldman Sachs says global oil prices will likely hit $100 per barrel if exports through Hormuz remain subdued for several weeks.

Among active stocks, Broadcom is higher as Wall Street analysts praise the company's strong outlook for 2027, a sign that heavy AI spending is set to continue.

City analyst Adif Malik reiterated his buy rating after the results, saying any concerns about margins or competition were put to rest.

Grocery Outlet is plunging after the company missed estimates and issued full-year profit guidance well below expectations, $0.45 to $0.55 versus $0.82 per share consensus.

A heavy reliance on promotions appears to be pressuring margins.

Looking ahead, Grocery Outlet outlined an optimization plan that will close 36 financially underperforming stores.

And Okta is rallying after it reported better-than-expected subscription revenue in its full-year fiscal 2027 guidance.

Analysts say the identity management company is gaining traction in agentic identity as well.

In other news of note, Berkshire Hathaway is buying back stock for the first time in more than a year.